Premier LeaguePrediction Everton — SunderlandSunday, 17 May 2026 at 16:00
Everton
Home
10th in table
1 — 3
✗ Lost
Sunderland
Away
12th in table
Our Prediction
Everton Win
match result
Odds
1.76
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.93
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.90
53% implied
∑Poisson Model
Everton
1.54
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.47
goals/match
Sunderland
0.93
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
13.0%
1–1
12.1%
2–0
10.0%
2–1
9.3%
0–0
8.5%
0–1
7.9%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Everton's superior expected goals (1.54 vs 0.93) highlight an offensive edge despite both teams conceding equally, suggesting a low-scoring but controlled home win. The Poisson model's 51.3% chance for Everton slightly outperforms the 54% implied by bookmakers, indicating a small market inefficiency favoring the home side's tactical solidity and sharper attack. Verdict: Everton to win 1-0 at 1.76, with the main risk being Sunderland scoring on a counter to draw; stake 3 units.
Match information
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