BundesligaPrediction FC St. Pauli — FSV Mainz 05Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 13:30
FC St. Pauli
Home
16th in table
VS
FSV Mainz 05
Away
1st in table
Our Prediction
Away Win
match result
Odds
2.50
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.93
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.90
53% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +43.6%FC St. Pauli
0.90
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
4.77
goals/match
FSV Mainz 05
3.87
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
0–3
8.2%
0–4
7.9%
1–3
7.4%
1–4
7.1%
0–2
6.3%
0–5
6.1%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
How to doubt a model predicting an 83.6% chance of Mainz winning against only 40% implied by bookmakers? Mainz’s relentless attack, scoring 3.6 goals per match, exploits St. Pauli’s weak defense conceding nearly two goals per game, while the home side struggles to score. The Poisson model reveals a market inefficiency with a strong value bet on Mainz’s win at 2.50 odds. I back Mainz to win @ 2.50 given their clear offensive edge and St. Pauli’s defensive frailty. Main risk: an exceptional defensive performance from St. Pauli. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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