Serie APrediction Fiorentina — GenoaSunday, 10 May 2026 at 15:00
Fiorentina
Home
15th in table
0 — 0
✗ Lost
Genoa
Away
14th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.03
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.88
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.01
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
Fiorentina
1.68
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.99
goals/match
Genoa
1.32
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
11.1%
2–1
9.3%
1–0
8.4%
1–2
7.3%
2–0
7.0%
0–1
6.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The home side shows a more structured attack with a higher expected goals figure (1.68 vs 1.32), exploiting the opponent’s defensive vulnerabilities (1.4 goals conceded per match). The Poisson model gives a 45.9% chance of a home win, slightly undervalued compared to bookmakers’ 47%, suggesting a value bet due to the home side’s increased offensive impetus under relegation pressure. The most probable score is 1-1, but the model's edge favors a home victory. I play Fiorentina to win at 2.03 due to their offensive edge and need for points, with the main risk being an early concession. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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