Serie APrediction Fiorentina — GenoaSunday, 10 May 2026 at 13:00
Fiorentina
Home
15th in table
VS
Genoa
Away
14th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.03
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.98
51% implied
∑Poisson Model
Fiorentina
1.68
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.99
goals/match
Genoa
1.32
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
11.1%
2–1
9.3%
1–0
8.4%
1–2
7.3%
2–0
7.0%
0–1
6.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The home side shows a more structured attack with a higher expected goals figure (1.68 vs 1.32), exploiting the opponent’s defensive vulnerabilities (1.4 goals conceded per match). The Poisson model gives a 45.9% chance of a home win, slightly undervalued compared to bookmakers’ 47%, suggesting a value bet due to the home side’s increased offensive impetus under relegation pressure. The most probable score is 1-1, but the model's edge favors a home victory. I play Fiorentina to win at 2.03 due to their offensive edge and need for points, with the main risk being an early concession. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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