Serie A13 Apr, 18:45
Prediction Fiorentina — LazioMonday, 13 April 2026 at 18:45
Fiorentina
Home
6th in table
1 — 0
✗ Lost
Lazio
Away
7th in table
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.96
best odds
High
Comparative Statistics
WWLLW
Form (5)
LDDWD
6th
Ranking
7th
1.6g/m
Avg attack
1.6g/m
1.1ag/m
Avg defence
1.3ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Fiorentina
41%
Draw
31%
Lazio
28%
Over 2.5 goals
1.90
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.01
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +5.1%Fiorentina
1.83
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.93
goals/match
Lazio
1.11
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Fiorentina+13% edge
Poisson
54%
Bookmaker
41%
Draw-8% unfavourable
Poisson
23%
Bookmaker
31%
Lazio-5% unfavourable
Poisson
23%
Bookmaker
28%
Most probable scores
1–1
10.8%
2–1
9.8%
1–0
9.7%
2–0
8.9%
3–1
6.0%
1–2
6.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts nearly 3 goals on average, with a 56.1% chance of over 2.5 goals, higher than bookmakers' 51%, indicating value. Both teams have decent scoring records, supporting an offensive game.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionSerie A
Date13 Apr, 18:45
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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