BundesligaPrediction FSV Mainz 05 — Union BerlinSunday, 10 May 2026 at 19:30
FSV Mainz 05
Home
1st in table
1 — 3
✗ Lost
Union Berlin
Away
13th in table
Our Prediction
FSV Mainz 05 Win
match result
Odds
1.84
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.92
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.97
51% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +30.7%FSV Mainz 05
4.25
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
5.05
goals/match
Union Berlin
0.80
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
4–0
8.7%
3–0
8.2%
5–0
7.4%
4–1
7.0%
3–1
6.5%
5–1
5.9%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Mainz 05’s potent attack faces Union Berlin’s vulnerable defense, creating a clear mismatch undervalued by bookmakers. The Poisson model estimates an 85% chance of Mainz victory versus a 54.3% market probability, revealing a strong value bet on the home win. I back Mainz 05 to win at 1.84 due to their dominant offense; the main risk is an unlikely low-scoring draw.
Match information
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