BundesligaPrediction FSV Mainz 05 — Union BerlinSunday, 10 May 2026 at 17:30
FSV Mainz 05
Home
1st in table
VS
Union Berlin
Away
13th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.84
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.05
49% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.83
55% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +30.7%FSV Mainz 05
4.25
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
5.05
goals/match
Union Berlin
0.80
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
4–0
8.7%
3–0
8.2%
5–0
7.4%
4–1
7.0%
3–1
6.5%
5–1
5.9%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Mainz 05’s potent attack faces Union Berlin’s vulnerable defense, creating a clear mismatch undervalued by bookmakers. The Poisson model estimates an 85% chance of Mainz victory versus a 54.3% market probability, revealing a strong value bet on the home win. I back Mainz 05 to win at 1.84 due to their dominant offense; the main risk is an unlikely low-scoring draw.
Match information
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