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Serie A

17 May, 15:00

Prediction Genoa — AC MilanSunday, 17 May 2026 at 15:00

Name: Away Win Prediction — Genoa vs AC Milan
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Genoa

Home

14th in table

Pending

AC Milan

Away

4th in table

Our Prediction

✈️

Away Win

match result

Odds

1.78

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

14th

Ranking

4th

1.1g/m

Avg attack

1.4g/m

1.3ag/m

Avg defence

0.8ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Genoa

21%

Draw

26%

AC Milan

53%

Over 2.5 goals

1.93

52% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.91

52% implied

∑Poisson Model

Genoa

1.11

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

2.68

goals/match

AC Milan

1.57

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Genoa+6% edge

Poisson

27%

Bookmaker

21%

Draw

Poisson

25%

Bookmaker

26%

AC Milan-5% unfavourable

Poisson

48%

Bookmaker

53%

Most probable scores

1–1

11.9%

0–1

10.7%

1–2

9.4%

0–2

8.4%

1–0

7.6%

0–0

6.8%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Milan's defensive strength is evident with only 0.8 goals conceded per match, contrasting with Genoa's 1.3, giving Milan a clear edge. The Poisson model rates Milan's win probability at 48%, slightly better than the bookies' implied 53%, highlighting value in Milan's favor. I back Milan to win at 1.78 due to their defensive solidity and superior attack, while the main risk is Genoa capitalizing on a defensive slip; stake 3 units.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

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Away Win

@ 1.78

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