LaLigaPrediction Getafe — Rayo VallecanoSunday, 3 May 2026 at 16:15
Getafe
Home
6th in table
0 — 2
✗ Lost
Rayo Vallecano
Away
11th in table
Our Prediction
Getafe Win
match result
Odds
2.01
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.06
49% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.82
55% implied
∑Poisson Model
Getafe
1.13
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
1.86
goals/match
Rayo Vallecano
0.73
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
17.6%
0–0
15.6%
1–1
12.8%
0–1
11.4%
2–0
9.9%
2–1
7.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Getafe’s strong defensive form and European ambitions give them an edge over a mid-table Rayo lacking pressure. The Poisson model assigns a 45.1% chance of a Getafe win and a 71.5% probability of under 2.5 goals, highlighting a tight, low-scoring game. I back Getafe to win at 2.01 due to their motivation and defensive solidity, with the main risk being a goalless draw.
Match information
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