LaLigaPrediction Getafe — Rayo VallecanoSunday, 3 May 2026 at 14:15
Getafe
Home
6th in table
VS
Rayo Vallecano
Away
11th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.01
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.04
49% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
∑Poisson Model
Getafe
1.13
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
1.86
goals/match
Rayo Vallecano
0.73
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
17.6%
0–0
15.6%
1–1
12.8%
0–1
11.4%
2–0
9.9%
2–1
7.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Getafe’s strong defensive form and European ambitions give them an edge over a mid-table Rayo lacking pressure. The Poisson model assigns a 45.1% chance of a Getafe win and a 71.5% probability of under 2.5 goals, highlighting a tight, low-scoring game. I back Getafe to win at 2.01 due to their motivation and defensive solidity, with the main risk being a goalless draw.
Match information
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