Serie A25 Apr, 18:45
Prediction Hellas Verona — LecceSaturday, 25 April 2026 at 18:45
Hellas Verona
Home
19th in table
VS
Pending
Lecce
Away
18th in table
Our Prediction
🔒
Under 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.52
best odds
High
Comparative Statistics
19th
Ranking
18th
0.7g/m
Avg attack
0.7g/m
1.7ag/m
Avg defence
1.4ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Hellas Verona
43%
Draw
29%
Lecce
27%
Over 2.5 goals
1.62
62% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.52
40% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +28.2%Hellas Verona
1.10
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
1.99
goals/match
Lecce
0.90
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Hellas Verona
Poisson
40%
Bookmaker
43%
Draw
Poisson
31%
Bookmaker
29%
Lecce
Poisson
29%
Bookmaker
27%
Most probable scores
1–0
15.0%
0–0
13.6%
1–1
13.4%
0–1
12.2%
2–0
8.2%
2–1
7.3%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Hellas Verona and Lecce both have low scoring averages and concede many goals. The Poisson model predicts a 67.9% chance of under 2.5 goals, much higher than bookmakers' implied 39.7%, indicating value at 2.52 odds.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionSerie A
Date25 Apr, 18:45
Analysis published18 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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