Serie A17 Apr, 18:45
Prediction Inter Milan — CagliariFriday, 17 April 2026 at 18:45
Inter Milan
Home
2nd in table
3 — 0
✓ Won
Cagliari
Away
15th in table
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.93
best odds
High
Comparative Statistics
WDWWL
Form (5)
LWLLW
2nd
Ranking
15th
2.1g/m
Avg attack
1.1g/m
0.9ag/m
Avg defence
1.5ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Inter Milan
79%
Draw
14%
Cagliari
7%
Over 2.5 goals
1.96
51% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.91
52% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +14.2%Inter Milan
2.69
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.43
goals/match
Cagliari
0.74
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Inter Milan
Poisson
78%
Bookmaker
79%
Draw
Poisson
14%
Bookmaker
14%
Cagliari
Poisson
8%
Bookmaker
7%
Most probable scores
2–0
11.7%
3–0
10.5%
1–0
8.7%
2–1
8.7%
3–1
7.8%
4–0
7.1%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The Poisson model predicts a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals, significantly higher than the bookmakers' implied 51.8%, indicating value. Inter's strong attack and Cagliari's defensive weaknesses suggest a high-scoring game.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionSerie A
Date17 Apr, 18:45
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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