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Serie A

17 May, 15:00

Prediction Inter Milan — Hellas VeronaSunday, 17 May 2026 at 15:00

Name: Home Win Prediction — Inter Milan vs Hellas Verona
Rating: 5
Author: Footexo

Inter Milan

Home

4th in table

Pending

Hellas Verona

Away

19th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.16

best odds

Very high

Comparative Statistics

4th

Ranking

19th

1.4g/m

Avg attack

0.7g/m

0.8ag/m

Avg defence

1.6ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Inter Milan

81%

Draw

12%

Hellas Verona

Over 2.5 goals

1.98

51% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.85

54% implied

∑Poisson Model

Inter Milan

2.14

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

2.60

goals/match

Hellas Verona

0.46

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Inter Milan-5% unfavourable

Poisson

76%

Bookmaker

81%

Draw+5% edge

Poisson

17%

Bookmaker

12%

Hellas Verona

Poisson

Bookmaker

Most probable scores

2–0

16.9%

1–0

15.8%

3–0

12.1%

2–1

7.9%

0–0

7.4%

1–1

7.3%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

The tactical gap between Inter Milan’s strong attack and solid defense against Verona’s fragile backline sets a clear advantage. The Poisson model calculates a 76.3% chance of an Inter win, slightly below the implied 81% by bookmakers, signaling value. I back Inter Milan to win at 1.16 due to their balanced profile and urgent need for points; the main risk remains an unexpected Verona counterattack.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

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Home Win

@ 1.16

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