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Serie A

3 May, 18:45

Prediction Inter Milan — ParmaSunday, 3 May 2026 at 18:45

Name: Home Win Prediction — Inter Milan vs Parma
Rating: 4
Author: Footexo

Inter Milan

Home

3rd in table

Pending

Parma

Away

12th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.22

best odds

High

Comparative Statistics

3rd

Ranking

12th

1.4g/m

Avg attack

0.7g/m

0.8ag/m

Avg defence

1.2ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Inter Milan

77%

Draw

14%

Parma

Over 2.5 goals

2.01

50% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.82

55% implied

∑Poisson Model

Inter Milan

1.72

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

2.21

goals/match

Parma

0.48

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Inter Milan-9% unfavourable

Poisson

68%

Bookmaker

77%

Draw+8% edge

Poisson

22%

Bookmaker

14%

Parma

Poisson

10%

Bookmaker

Most probable scores

1–0

18.9%

2–0

16.3%

0–0

11.0%

3–0

9.4%

1–1

9.2%

2–1

7.9%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Inter Milan's title ambitions contrast sharply with Parma's relaxed position, favoring a controlled home win. The Poisson model gives Inter a 67.8% win chance, higher than the bookmaker's 77% implied but still strong, suggesting value in backing their victory. The lower expected goals and defensive solidity point to a tight game rather than a runaway scoreline, supporting a bet on Inter's win at 1.22 odds.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

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Home Win

@ 1.22

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