Serie APrediction Inter Milan — ParmaSunday, 3 May 2026 at 20:45
Inter Milan
Home
3rd in table
2 — 0
✓ Won
Parma
Away
12th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.22
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.04
49% implied
∑Poisson Model
Inter Milan
1.72
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.21
goals/match
Parma
0.48
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
18.9%
2–0
16.3%
0–0
11.0%
3–0
9.4%
1–1
9.2%
2–1
7.9%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Inter Milan's title ambitions contrast sharply with Parma's relaxed position, favoring a controlled home win. The Poisson model gives Inter a 67.8% win chance, higher than the bookmaker's 77% implied but still strong, suggesting value in backing their victory. The lower expected goals and defensive solidity point to a tight game rather than a runaway scoreline, supporting a bet on Inter's win at 1.22 odds.
Match information
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