Serie A19 Apr, 18:45
Prediction Juventus — BolognaSunday, 19 April 2026 at 18:45
Juventus
Home
VS
Pending
Bologna
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.98
best odds
High
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Juventus
65%
Draw
21%
Bologna
14%
Over 2.5 goals
2.01
50% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.88
53% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +6.6%Juventus
2.26
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.98
goals/match
Bologna
0.73
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Juventus+7% edge
Poisson
72%
Bookmaker
65%
Draw-4% unfavourable
Poisson
17%
Bookmaker
21%
Bologna-4% unfavourable
Poisson
10%
Bookmaker
14%
Most probable scores
2–0
12.9%
1–0
11.4%
3–0
9.7%
2–1
9.4%
1–1
8.3%
3–1
7.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The match is expected to have nearly 3 goals, with Juventus' strong attack and Bologna's weaker defense. The Poisson model gives a 57.1% chance of over 2.5 goals, higher than bookmakers' 50.5%, indicating value. Recommended bet: Over 2.5 goals with strong confidence.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionSerie A
Date19 Apr, 18:45
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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