Serie APrediction Juventus — FiorentinaSunday, 17 May 2026 at 15:00
Juventus
Home
3rd in table
0 — 2
✗ Lost
Fiorentina
Away
15th in table
Our Prediction
Juventus Win
match result
Odds
1.40
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.03
49% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.82
55% implied
∑Poisson Model
Juventus
2.20
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.94
goals/match
Fiorentina
0.73
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
2–0
12.9%
1–0
11.7%
2–1
9.4%
3–0
9.4%
1–1
8.6%
3–1
6.9%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Can Juventus, third in the league and title contenders, be destabilized by a struggling Fiorentina? Juventus’s better attack and defense stats give them a clear edge. The Poisson model supports this with a 70.7% win probability versus 11% for Fiorentina, highlighting an undervaluation by bookmakers. The model also identifies a value bet on over 2.5 goals at 56% probability against 49.3% odds, reflecting offensive potential. I back Juventus to win at 1.40, with the main risk being a defensive Fiorentina leading to a low-scoring draw.
Match information
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