Serie APrediction Juventus — FiorentinaSunday, 17 May 2026 at 15:00
Juventus
Home
3rd in table
VS
Fiorentina
Away
15th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.40
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.03
49% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.82
55% implied
∑Poisson Model
Juventus
2.20
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.94
goals/match
Fiorentina
0.73
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
2–0
12.9%
1–0
11.7%
2–1
9.4%
3–0
9.4%
1–1
8.6%
3–1
6.9%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Can Juventus, third in the league and title contenders, be destabilized by a struggling Fiorentina? Juventus’s better attack and defense stats give them a clear edge. The Poisson model supports this with a 70.7% win probability versus 11% for Fiorentina, highlighting an undervaluation by bookmakers. The model also identifies a value bet on over 2.5 goals at 56% probability against 49.3% odds, reflecting offensive potential. I back Juventus to win at 1.40, with the main risk being a defensive Fiorentina leading to a low-scoring draw.
Match information
Share this prediction