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Serie A

3 May, 18:00

Prediction Juventus — Hellas VeronaSunday, 3 May 2026 at 18:00

Name: Home Win Prediction — Juventus vs Hellas Verona
Rating: 5
Author: Footexo

Juventus

Home

4th in table

1 — 1

✗ Lost

Hellas Verona

Away

19th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.26

best odds

Very high

Comparative Statistics

4th

Ranking

19th

1.7g/m

Avg attack

0.7g/m

0.9ag/m

Avg defence

1.6ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Juventus

82%

Draw

13%

Hellas Verona

Over 2.5 goals

1.94

52% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.94

52% implied

∑Poisson Model

Juventus

2.69

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.16

goals/match

Hellas Verona

0.47

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Juventus

Poisson

83%

Bookmaker

82%

Draw

Poisson

12%

Bookmaker

13%

Hellas Verona

Poisson

Bookmaker

Most probable scores

2–0

15.3%

3–0

13.7%

1–0

11.4%

4–0

9.2%

2–1

7.2%

3–1

6.5%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Juventus is fighting for a crucial European spot while Hellas Verona struggles near relegation, highlighting a clear quality gap. The Poisson model estimates an 83.3% chance of a Juventus win, higher than bookmakers' 75%, signaling undervaluation of their attacking strength. I back a Juventus win at 1.26 due to their superior form and defensive solidity, with the main risk being Verona’s defensive resilience limiting the scoreline.

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Home Win

@ 1.26

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