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Serie A

27 Apr, 18:45

Prediction Lazio — UdineseMonday, 27 April 2026 at 18:45

Name: Home Win Prediction — Lazio vs Udinese
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Lazio

Home

9th in table

Pending

Udinese

Away

11th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.99

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

9th

Ranking

11th

1.0g/m

Avg attack

1.2g/m

0.9ag/m

Avg defence

1.3ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Lazio

48%

Draw

29%

Udinese

24%

Over 2.5 goals

2.12

47% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.62

62% implied

∑Poisson Model

Lazio

1.35

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

2.20

goals/match

Udinese

0.84

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Lazio

Poisson

49%

Bookmaker

48%

Draw

Poisson

28%

Bookmaker

29%

Udinese

Poisson

23%

Bookmaker

24%

Most probable scores

1–0

15.0%

1–1

12.7%

0–0

11.1%

2–0

10.2%

0–1

9.4%

2–1

8.6%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Lazio holds a slight offensive edge and a stronger defense compared to Udinese, setting the stage for a tight match controlled by Lazio. The Poisson model gives Lazio a 48.7% win probability, slightly above bookmakers' 48%, indicating a subtle value bet. Confident in Lazio’s tactical discipline and ability to capitalize on Udinese’s defensive weaknesses, the recommendation is a Lazio win at 1.99 odds.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

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Home Win

@ 1.99

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