Serie APrediction Lazio — UdineseMonday, 27 April 2026 at 20:45
Lazio
Home
9th in table
3 — 3
✗ Lost
Udinese
Away
11th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.99
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.12
47% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.62
62% implied
∑Poisson Model
Lazio
1.35
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.20
goals/match
Udinese
0.84
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
15.0%
1–1
12.7%
0–0
11.1%
2–0
10.2%
0–1
9.4%
2–1
8.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Lazio holds a slight offensive edge and a stronger defense compared to Udinese, setting the stage for a tight match controlled by Lazio. The Poisson model gives Lazio a 48.7% win probability, slightly above bookmakers' 48%, indicating a subtle value bet. Confident in Lazio’s tactical discipline and ability to capitalize on Udinese’s defensive weaknesses, the recommendation is a Lazio win at 1.99 odds.
Match information
Share this prediction