Ligue 1Prediction Le Havre — MarseilleSunday, 10 May 2026 at 21:00
Le Havre
Home
14th in table
VS
Marseille
Away
7th in table
Our Prediction
Away Win
match result
Odds
2.01
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.99
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
Le Havre
1.26
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.01
goals/match
Marseille
1.76
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
10.8%
1–2
9.5%
0–1
8.6%
0–2
7.6%
2–1
6.8%
1–0
6.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Marseille's superior offensive output (1.8 goals per game) contrasts with Le Havre's modest scoring, giving the visitors an edge. The Poisson model rates Marseille’s win probability at 49.1%, slightly above bookmakers' 47%, indicating value. The match’s expected goal total supports an open game favoring Marseille’s attack. I back Marseille to win @ 2.01 due to their offensive strength and Le Havre’s defensive pressure. Main risk: a tight defensive setup by Le Havre. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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