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Ligue 1

26 Apr, 17:15

Prediction Le Havre — MetzSunday, 26 April 2026 at 17:15

Name: Home Win Prediction — Le Havre vs Metz
Rating: 4
Author: Footexo

Le Havre

Home

14th in table

4 — 4

✗ Lost

Metz

Away

18th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.73

best odds

High

Comparative Statistics

14th

Ranking

18th

0.8g/m

Avg attack

0.9g/m

1.3ag/m

Avg defence

2.2ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Le Havre

54%

Draw

26%

Metz

20%

Over 2.5 goals

1.90

53% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.77

56% implied

∑Poisson Model

Le Havre

1.62

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

2.41

goals/match

Metz

0.79

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Le Havre

Poisson

57%

Bookmaker

54%

Draw

Poisson

25%

Bookmaker

26%

Metz

Poisson

18%

Bookmaker

20%

Most probable scores

1–0

14.5%

2–0

11.7%

1–1

11.5%

2–1

9.3%

0–0

9.0%

0–1

7.1%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Le Havre's stronger defense against Metz's leaky backline and Metz's relegation pressure favor a home win. The Poisson model gives Le Havre a 57% win chance, higher than bookmakers' 53%, indicating value. I back Le Havre to win at 1.73, confident in their defensive edge and Metz's cautious approach; risk lies in a defensive Metz holding a draw.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Home Win

@ 1.73

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