Serie APrediction Lecce — JuventusSaturday, 9 May 2026 at 20:45
Lecce
Home
17th in table
0 — 1
✓ Won
Juventus
Away
4th in table
Our Prediction
Away Win
match result
Odds
1.52
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.01
50% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.88
53% implied
∑Poisson Model
Lecce
0.80
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.63
goals/match
Juventus
1.82
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
0–1
13.2%
0–2
12.0%
1–1
10.6%
1–2
9.7%
0–3
7.3%
0–0
7.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Juventus' defensive solidity (0.9 goals conceded per match) contrasts with the home side's weak attack (0.7 goals scored), indicating the visitors will control the game. The Poisson model gives Juventus a 61.4% win probability, higher than the 52% implied by odds, highlighting value. The predicted 0-1 score fits a cautious but efficient Juventus performance. I back Juventus to win at 1.52 due to their combined defensive and offensive superiority. Main risk: a very tight defensive block leading to a goalless draw.
Match information
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