Home/Predictions/Premier League/Leeds United vs Burnley

Premier League

1 May, 19:00

Prediction Leeds United — BurnleyFriday, 1 May 2026 at 19:00

Name: Home Win Prediction — Leeds United vs Burnley
Rating: 4
Author: Footexo

Leeds United

Home

15th in table

Pending

Burnley

Away

19th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.44

best odds

High

Comparative Statistics

15th

Ranking

19th

1.3g/m

Avg attack

1.0g/m

1.5ag/m

Avg defence

2.0ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Leeds United

64%

Draw

20%

Burnley

16%

Over 2.5 goals

1.78

56% implied

Under 2.5 goals

2.21

45% implied

∑Poisson Model

Leeds United

2.24

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.36

goals/match

Burnley

1.12

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Leeds United

Poisson

62%

Bookmaker

64%

Draw

Poisson

19%

Bookmaker

20%

Burnley

Poisson

18%

Bookmaker

16%

Most probable scores

2–1

9.8%

2–0

8.7%

1–1

8.7%

1–0

7.8%

3–1

7.3%

3–0

6.5%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Can Burnley secure points against Leeds when pressure mounts? Leeds’ stronger attack and more resilient defense favor the home side. The Poisson model signals a 65.1% chance of over 2.5 goals versus 56.2% market odds, showing an undervalued scoring potential. I back Leeds to win at 1.44 due to their offensive edge and Burnley’s defensive frailty. Main risk: Burnley manages a low-scoring draw. Stake: 3 units.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Home Win

@ 1.44

Bet on Betclic →

100€ for new members