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23 Apr, 17:00

Prediction Levante — SevillaThursday, 23 April 2026 at 17:00

Name: Over 2.5 Goals Prediction — Levante vs Sevilla
Rating: 4
Author: Footexo

Levante

Home

19th in table

Pending

Sevilla

Away

16th in table

Our Prediction

⚽

Over 2.5 Goals

over under

Odds

1.89

best odds

High

Comparative Statistics

19th

Ranking

16th

1.1g/m

Avg attack

1.3g/m

1.6ag/m

Avg defence

1.6ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Levante

38%

Draw

29%

Sevilla

33%

Over 2.5 goals

1.89

53% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.94

52% implied

∑Poisson Model

🎯 VALUE BET +7.1%

Levante

1.66

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.11

goals/match

Sevilla

1.45

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Levante+5% edge

Poisson

43%

Bookmaker

38%

Draw-5% unfavourable

Poisson

24%

Bookmaker

29%

Sevilla

Poisson

34%

Bookmaker

33%

Most probable scores

1–1

10.7%

2–1

8.9%

1–2

7.8%

1–0

7.4%

0–1

6.5%

2–2

6.5%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Levante and Sevilla are fighting to avoid relegation, leading to an open game with defensive weaknesses on both sides. The Poisson model estimates a 60.1% chance of over 2.5 goals, higher than bookmakers’ 52.9%, indicating a profitable bet. I back over 2.5 goals at 1.89 due to the offensive pressure and defensive vulnerabilities, with risk being a highly defensive or disrupted match.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

@ 1.89

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