Ligue 1Prediction Lille — Le HavreSunday, 3 May 2026 at 15:00
Lille
Home
5th in table
1 — 1
✗ Lost
Le Havre
Away
14th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.42
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.90
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.00
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
Lille
1.78
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.43
goals/match
Le Havre
0.65
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
15.6%
2–0
13.9%
1–1
10.2%
2–1
9.1%
0–0
8.8%
3–0
8.3%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Lille's attack potential of nearly 1.8 expected goals against a Le Havre defense conceding 1.3 goals per game shows a clear tactical edge for the home side. The Poisson model's 64.6% probability aligns with bookmakers' 67%, confirming the market's confidence but validating Lille's edge. The 1-0 predicted scoreline reflects a tight, controlled game favoring Lille's pragmatic approach. I play Lille to win @ 1.42 due to their offensive and defensive balance. Main risk: Le Havre's deep defensive block forcing a draw. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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