Ligue 1Prediction Lille — Le HavreSunday, 3 May 2026 at 13:00
Lille
Home
5th in table
VS
Le Havre
Away
14th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.42
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.91
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.93
52% implied
∑Poisson Model
Lille
1.78
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.43
goals/match
Le Havre
0.65
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
15.6%
2–0
13.9%
1–1
10.2%
2–1
9.1%
0–0
8.8%
3–0
8.3%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Lille's attack potential of nearly 1.8 expected goals against a Le Havre defense conceding 1.3 goals per game shows a clear tactical edge for the home side. The Poisson model's 64.6% probability aligns with bookmakers' 67%, confirming the market's confidence but validating Lille's edge. The 1-0 predicted scoreline reflects a tight, controlled game favoring Lille's pragmatic approach. I play Lille to win @ 1.42 due to their offensive and defensive balance. Main risk: Le Havre's deep defensive block forcing a draw. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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