Ligue 118 Apr, 19:05
Prediction Lille — NiceSaturday, 18 April 2026 at 19:05
Lille
Home
VS
Pending
Nice
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.88
best odds
High
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Lille
63%
Draw
21%
Nice
16%
Over 2.5 goals
1.93
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.97
51% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +14.1%Lille
2.08
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.47
goals/match
Nice
1.39
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Lille-10% unfavourable
Poisson
53%
Bookmaker
63%
Draw
Poisson
21%
Bookmaker
21%
Nice+9% edge
Poisson
25%
Bookmaker
16%
Most probable scores
2–1
9.4%
1–1
9.0%
2–0
6.7%
3–1
6.5%
2–2
6.5%
1–0
6.5%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The match is expected to be high-scoring with a 67.2% probability for over 2.5 goals, significantly higher than bookmakers' 53.2%. This makes the Over 2.5 bet a strong value pick with high confidence.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLigue 1
Date18 Apr, 19:05
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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