Home/Predictions/Premier League/Liverpool vs Chelsea

Premier League

9 May, 11:30

Prediction Liverpool — ChelseaSaturday, 9 May 2026 at 11:30

Name: Home Win Prediction — Liverpool vs Chelsea
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Liverpool

Home

4th in table

Pending

Chelsea

Away

9th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.82

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

4th

Ranking

9th

1.7g/m

Avg attack

1.6g/m

1.3ag/m

Avg defence

1.3ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Liverpool

50%

Draw

24%

Chelsea

26%

Over 2.5 goals

2.27

44% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.74

57% implied

∑Poisson Model

Liverpool

1.96

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.41

goals/match

Chelsea

1.44

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Liverpool

Poisson

50%

Bookmaker

50%

Draw

Poisson

22%

Bookmaker

24%

Chelsea

Poisson

28%

Bookmaker

26%

Most probable scores

1–1

9.4%

2–1

9.2%

1–2

6.8%

2–2

6.7%

1–0

6.5%

2–0

6.4%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Liverpool’s aggressive high press and offensive firepower create significant scoring chances against a defensively vulnerable Chelsea side. The Poisson model assigns almost 50% chance for Liverpool to win and highlights an undervalued over 2.5 goals market at 66%, indicating a likely open game with many scoring opportunities. I back a home win at 1.82, given Liverpool’s motivation and Chelsea’s lack of pressure, while the main risk is a solid Chelsea defense stifling chances. Stake: 3 units.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Home Win

@ 1.82

Bet on Betclic →

100€ for new members