Premier LeaguePrediction Liverpool — ChelseaSaturday, 9 May 2026 at 13:30
Liverpool
Home
4th in table
1 — 2
✗ Lost
Chelsea
Away
9th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.82
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.06
49% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.66
60% implied
∑Poisson Model
Liverpool
1.96
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.41
goals/match
Chelsea
1.44
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
9.4%
2–1
9.2%
1–2
6.8%
2–2
6.7%
1–0
6.5%
2–0
6.4%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Liverpool’s aggressive high press and offensive firepower create significant scoring chances against a defensively vulnerable Chelsea side. The Poisson model assigns almost 50% chance for Liverpool to win and highlights an undervalued over 2.5 goals market at 66%, indicating a likely open game with many scoring opportunities. I back a home win at 1.82, given Liverpool’s motivation and Chelsea’s lack of pressure, while the main risk is a solid Chelsea defense stifling chances. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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