Champions League14 Apr, 19:00
Prediction Liverpool — Paris Saint GermainTuesday, 14 April 2026 at 19:00
Liverpool
Home
1st in table
0 — 2
✓ Won
Paris Saint Germain
Away
15th in table
Our Prediction
🔒
Under 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.91
best odds
High
Comparative Statistics
LWWWW
Form (5)
WWWLL
1st
Ranking
15th
2.1g/m
Avg attack
1.8g/m
0.6ag/m
Avg defence
1.1ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Liverpool
41%
Draw
23%
Paris Saint Germain
36%
Over 2.5 goals
1.86
54% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.05
49% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +14.0%Liverpool
1.73
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.05
goals/match
Paris Saint Germain
0.32
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Liverpool+31% edge
Poisson
72%
Bookmaker
41%
Draw
Poisson
21%
Bookmaker
23%
Paris Saint Germain-30% unfavourable
Poisson
6%
Bookmaker
36%
Most probable scores
1–0
22.2%
2–0
19.2%
0–0
12.9%
3–0
11.0%
1–1
7.2%
2–1
6.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The Poisson model predicts a 66.3% chance of under 2.5 goals, higher than bookmaker implied odds. This suggests a low-scoring game, making under 2.5 goals a strong value bet.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionChampions League
Date14 Apr, 19:00
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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