Ligue 1Prediction Lyon — AuxerreSaturday, 25 April 2026 at 13:00
Lyon
Home
6th in table
VS
Auxerre
Away
16th in table
Our Prediction
Under 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.87
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.96
51% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.93
52% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +9.6%Lyon
1.59
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.17
goals/match
Auxerre
0.58
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
18.2%
2–0
14.4%
0–0
11.4%
1–1
10.5%
2–1
8.4%
3–0
7.7%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The expected total goals (2.17) and 63.1% probability for under 2.5 goals reflect a likely tight game. Bookmakers undervalue this at 53.5%, offering a 10% edge. Lyon’s cautious approach to secure Europe and Auxerre’s defensive mindset support this. I back Under 2.5 goals at 1.87, with risk being an unexpectedly open, high-scoring match.
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