Ligue 1Prediction Lyon — RennesSunday, 3 May 2026 at 18:45
Lyon
Home
4th in table
VS
Rennes
Away
5th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.38
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.92
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.92
52% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +9.5%Lyon
1.86
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.12
goals/match
Rennes
1.26
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
10.4%
2–1
9.6%
1–0
8.2%
2–0
7.7%
1–2
6.5%
2–2
6.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Lyon’s stronger defense and solid attack give them an edge over Rennes’ more vulnerable defense despite their offensive threat. The Poisson model shows a 51.5% chance of a Lyon win versus 42% implied by bookmakers, highlighting market undervaluation. I back Lyon to win at 2.38 due to their European ambitions and home advantage, though a late Rennes equalizer is possible.
Match information
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