LaLiga21 Apr, 17:00
Prediction Mallorca — ValenciaTuesday, 21 April 2026 at 17:00
Mallorca
Home
15th in table
VS
Pending
Valencia
Away
14th in table
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.89
best odds
High
Comparative Statistics
15th
Ranking
14th
1.3g/m
Avg attack
1.1g/m
1.5ag/m
Avg defence
1.5ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Mallorca
37%
Draw
30%
Valencia
32%
Over 2.5 goals
1.89
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.93
52% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +3.3%Mallorca
1.69
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.94
goals/match
Valencia
1.24
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Mallorca+11% edge
Poisson
48%
Bookmaker
37%
Draw-6% unfavourable
Poisson
24%
Bookmaker
30%
Valencia-4% unfavourable
Poisson
28%
Bookmaker
32%
Most probable scores
1–1
11.2%
2–1
9.5%
1–0
9.0%
2–0
7.6%
1–2
6.9%
0–1
6.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The expected goals total near 3 signals a high-scoring encounter, with both teams conceding frequently. The model’s 56.2% probability for over 2.5 goals exceeds bookmakers’ 52.9%, indicating value. Given both sides’ offensive intent and defensive vulnerabilities, over 2.5 goals is a sound bet at 1.89 odds.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLaLiga
Date21 Apr, 17:00
Analysis published19 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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