Premier LeaguePrediction Manchester City — BrentfordSaturday, 9 May 2026 at 18:30
Manchester City
Home
2nd in table
3 — 0
✓ Won
Brentford
Away
6th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.35
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.40
71% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.92
34% implied
∑Poisson Model
Manchester City
2.27
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.25
goals/match
Brentford
0.98
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
2–0
10.0%
2–1
9.8%
1–0
8.8%
1–1
8.6%
3–0
7.5%
3–1
7.4%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Manchester City’s strong attack and solid defense contrast sharply with Brentford’s vulnerability, creating a clear edge not fully priced by bookmakers. The Poisson model shows a 66.1% chance for City, slightly better value than the market odds, with expected goals of 2.27 for City versus under one for Brentford. The verdict is a confident City win at 1.35, given their dominance and statistical backing, though Brentford’s defensive resilience poses the main risk.
Match information
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