Premier LeaguePrediction Manchester City — Crystal PalaceWednesday, 13 May 2026 at 21:00
Manchester City
Home
2nd in table
3 — 0
✓ Won
Crystal Palace
Away
15th in table
Our Prediction
Manchester City Win
match result
Odds
1.22
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.18
46% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.61
62% implied
∑Poisson Model
Manchester City
2.22
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.93
goals/match
Crystal Palace
0.71
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
2–0
13.1%
1–0
11.9%
3–0
9.7%
2–1
9.4%
1–1
8.4%
3–1
6.9%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
A clear imbalance pits Manchester City's strong attack against Crystal Palace's leaky defense under pressure, favoring a decisive home win. The Poisson model signals a 71.5% chance of City winning and highlights a 55.8% probability of over 2.5 goals versus a 45.9% implied chance, showing market inefficiency. The verdict is a confident bet on City’s victory at 1.22, with the main risk being a tight 1-0 result.
Match information
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