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Premier League

13 May, 21:00

Prediction Manchester City — Crystal PalaceWednesday, 13 May 2026 at 21:00

Name: Home Win Prediction — Manchester City vs Crystal Palace
Rating: 5
Author: Footexo

Manchester City

Home

2nd in table

Pending

Crystal Palace

Away

15th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.22

best odds

Very high

Comparative Statistics

2nd

Ranking

15th

2.0g/m

Avg attack

1.1g/m

0.9ag/m

Avg defence

1.2ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Manchester City

73%

Draw

17%

Crystal Palace

11%

Over 2.5 goals

2.18

46% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.61

62% implied

∑Poisson Model

Manchester City

2.22

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

2.93

goals/match

Crystal Palace

0.71

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Manchester City

Poisson

72%

Bookmaker

73%

Draw

Poisson

18%

Bookmaker

17%

Crystal Palace

Poisson

11%

Bookmaker

11%

Most probable scores

2–0

13.1%

1–0

11.9%

3–0

9.7%

2–1

9.4%

1–1

8.4%

3–1

6.9%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

A clear imbalance pits Manchester City's strong attack against Crystal Palace's leaky defense under pressure, favoring a decisive home win. The Poisson model signals a 71.5% chance of City winning and highlights a 55.8% probability of over 2.5 goals versus a 45.9% implied chance, showing market inefficiency. The verdict is a confident bet on City’s victory at 1.22, with the main risk being a tight 1-0 result.

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Bet on this prediction

Home Win

@ 1.22

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