Premier League13 Apr, 19:00
Prediction Manchester United — Leeds UnitedMonday, 13 April 2026 at 19:00
Manchester United
Home
15th in table
1 — 2
✓ Won
Leeds United
Away
5th in table
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.74
best odds
Moderate
Comparative Statistics
WLLLD
Form (5)
LLWDW
15th
Ranking
5th
1.2g/m
Avg attack
1.8g/m
1.4ag/m
Avg defence
1.2ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Manchester United
62%
Draw
22%
Leeds United
16%
Over 2.5 goals
1.73
58% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.29
44% implied
∑Poisson Model
Manchester United
1.29
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.80
goals/match
Leeds United
1.51
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Manchester United-30% unfavourable
Poisson
32%
Bookmaker
62%
Draw
Poisson
25%
Bookmaker
22%
Leeds United+26% edge
Poisson
42%
Bookmaker
16%
Most probable scores
1–1
11.8%
0–1
9.2%
1–2
9.0%
1–0
7.8%
2–1
7.6%
0–2
6.9%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts a 53.1% chance of over 2.5 goals, indicating a moderately high-scoring game. While not a strong value bet, the over 2.5 goals is a reasonable secondary pick with moderate confidence.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionPremier League
Date13 Apr, 19:00
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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