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Premier League

3 May, 14:30

Prediction Manchester United — LiverpoolSunday, 3 May 2026 at 14:30

Name: Home Win Prediction — Manchester United vs Liverpool
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Manchester United

Home

3rd in table

Pending

Liverpool

Away

4th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

2.35

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

3rd

Ranking

4th

1.8g/m

Avg attack

1.7g/m

1.4ag/m

Avg defence

1.3ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Manchester United

39%

Draw

24%

Liverpool

37%

Over 2.5 goals

1.44

69% implied

Under 2.5 goals

2.62

38% implied

∑Poisson Model

Manchester United

1.96

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.60

goals/match

Liverpool

1.63

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Manchester United+7% edge

Poisson

46%

Bookmaker

39%

Draw

Poisson

22%

Bookmaker

24%

Liverpool-5% unfavourable

Poisson

32%

Bookmaker

37%

Most probable scores

1–1

8.8%

2–1

8.6%

1–2

7.2%

2–2

7.0%

3–1

5.7%

1–0

5.4%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Who will prevail between a stronger offense and a slightly vulnerable defense? Manchester United's superior offensive metrics and higher league position give them an edge against Liverpool’s compromised defense. The Poisson model shows a 45.8% chance of a home win versus the 39% implied by odds, revealing market undervaluation. I back a Manchester United victory at 2.35 due to offensive strength and ranking advantage. Main risk: Liverpool’s tactical surprise. Stake: 3 units.

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Home Win

@ 2.35

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