Premier LeaguePrediction Manchester United — Nottingham ForestSunday, 17 May 2026 at 13:30
Manchester United
Home
3rd in table
3 — 2
✓ Won
Nottingham Forest
Away
15th in table
Our Prediction
Manchester United Win
match result
Odds
1.60
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.99
50% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
∑Poisson Model
Manchester United
2.00
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.19
goals/match
Nottingham Forest
1.19
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
9.8%
2–1
9.8%
1–0
8.2%
2–0
8.2%
3–1
6.5%
1–2
5.8%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Manchester United is fighting for the title while Nottingham Forest is struggling to secure safety, creating a clear tactical imbalance favoring the hosts’ attack. The Poisson model assigns a 56% win probability to United and identifies an undervalued over 2.5 goals market at 61.7% probability, hinting at an open, high-scoring game due to Forest’s vulnerable defense. I back Manchester United at 1.6 because their offensive edge and title ambitions should prevail, though Forest's defensive resilience could limit scoring. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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