Premier LeaguePrediction Manchester United — Nottingham ForestSunday, 17 May 2026 at 13:30
Manchester United
Home
3rd in table
VS
Nottingham Forest
Away
15th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.60
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.99
50% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
∑Poisson Model
Manchester United
2.00
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.19
goals/match
Nottingham Forest
1.19
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
9.8%
2–1
9.8%
1–0
8.2%
2–0
8.2%
3–1
6.5%
1–2
5.8%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Manchester United is fighting for the title while Nottingham Forest is struggling to secure safety, creating a clear tactical imbalance favoring the hosts’ attack. The Poisson model assigns a 56% win probability to United and identifies an undervalued over 2.5 goals market at 61.7% probability, hinting at an open, high-scoring game due to Forest’s vulnerable defense. I back Manchester United at 1.6 because their offensive edge and title ambitions should prevail, though Forest's defensive resilience could limit scoring. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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