Ligue 1Prediction Metz — AS MonacoSaturday, 2 May 2026 at 19:00
Metz
Home
18th in table
1 — 2
✓ Won
AS Monaco
Away
7th in table
Our Prediction
Away Win
match result
Odds
1.52
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.88
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.03
49% implied
∑Poisson Model
Metz
1.37
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
4.19
goals/match
AS Monaco
2.82
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–2
8.3%
1–3
7.8%
0–2
6.0%
1–1
5.9%
2–2
5.7%
0–3
5.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The visiting side relies on a fluid, efficient attack expected to score nearly 2.8 goals, exploiting a vulnerable defense conceding over 2 goals per game. The statistical model rates the away win probability at 66%, above bookmakers' 62%, with an 78% chance for over 2.5 goals, showing market undervaluation. The strong offense combined with the home team's desperation for points favors an open match. I play away win @ 1.52 due to the attacking dominance and defensive weaknesses; main risk is a defensive rebound from the home side. Stake: 4 units.
Match information
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