Ligue 1Prediction Metz — AS MonacoSaturday, 2 May 2026 at 17:00
Metz
Home
18th in table
VS
AS Monaco
Away
7th in table
Our Prediction
Away Win
match result
Odds
1.52
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.95
51% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.88
53% implied
∑Poisson Model
Metz
1.37
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
4.19
goals/match
AS Monaco
2.82
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–2
8.3%
1–3
7.8%
0–2
6.0%
1–1
5.9%
2–2
5.7%
0–3
5.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The visiting side relies on a fluid, efficient attack expected to score nearly 2.8 goals, exploiting a vulnerable defense conceding over 2 goals per game. The statistical model rates the away win probability at 66%, above bookmakers' 62%, with an 78% chance for over 2.5 goals, showing market undervaluation. The strong offense combined with the home team's desperation for points favors an open match. I play away win @ 1.52 due to the attacking dominance and defensive weaknesses; main risk is a defensive rebound from the home side. Stake: 4 units.
Match information
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