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Ligue 1

10 May, 21:00

Prediction Metz — LorientSunday, 10 May 2026 at 21:00

Name: Lorient Win Prediction — Metz vs Lorient
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Metz

Home

18th in table

0 — 4

✓ Won

Lorient

Away

9th in table

Our Prediction

🏆

Lorient Win

match result

Odds

2.13

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

18th

Ranking

9th

1.0g/m

Avg attack

1.4g/m

2.3ag/m

Avg defence

1.5ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Metz

30%

Draw

26%

Lorient

45%

Over 2.5 goals

1.88

53% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.95

51% implied

∑Poisson Model

🎯 VALUE BET +8.1%

Metz

1.40

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.58

goals/match

Lorient

2.18

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Metz-6% unfavourable

Poisson

24%

Bookmaker

30%

Draw-6% unfavourable

Poisson

20%

Bookmaker

26%

Lorient+10% edge

Poisson

55%

Bookmaker

45%

Most probable scores

1–2

9.3%

1–1

8.5%

1–3

6.7%

0–2

6.6%

2–2

6.5%

0–1

6.1%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Metz's defense concedes 2.3 goals per match while Lorient scores 1.4, highlighting a clear advantage for Lorient given Metz's relegation-threatened status and poor defensive record. The Poisson model estimates a 55% chance of a Lorient win, significantly higher than bookmakers' 46.9%, indicating value. This edge, combined with an expected high-scoring game, supports backing Lorient's victory at 2.13 odds.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Lorient Win

@ 2.13

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