Serie APrediction Napoli — BolognaMonday, 11 May 2026 at 20:45
Napoli
Home
2nd in table
2 — 3
✗ Lost
Bologna
Away
9th in table
Our Prediction
Napoli Win
match result
Odds
1.56
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.99
50% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.88
53% implied
∑Poisson Model
Napoli
1.79
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.74
goals/match
Bologna
0.95
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
11.6%
1–1
11.0%
2–0
10.3%
2–1
9.8%
0–0
6.5%
0–1
6.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Napoli boasts a stronger attack and defense compared to a pressure-free Bologna sitting 9th, indicating a clear home advantage. The Poisson model gives Napoli a 57% win probability, slightly below bookmaker odds implying a 61% chance after margin removal, suggesting a modest market inefficiency. The most probable score of 1-0 aligns with a pragmatic home side controlling the match to secure crucial points.
I back Napoli to win @ 1.56. The home advantage and title race urgency favor a disciplined Napoli performance. Main risk: Bologna's defensive resilience leading to a draw. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
Share this prediction