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Serie A

11 May, 18:45

Prediction Napoli — BolognaMonday, 11 May 2026 at 18:45

Name: Home Win Prediction — Napoli vs Bologna
Rating: 4
Author: Footexo

Napoli

Home

2nd in table

Pending

Bologna

Away

9th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.56

best odds

High

Comparative Statistics

2nd

Ranking

9th

1.5g/m

Avg attack

1.2g/m

0.9ag/m

Avg defence

1.2ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Napoli

61%

Draw

23%

Bologna

16%

Over 2.5 goals

1.93

52% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.94

52% implied

∑Poisson Model

Napoli

1.79

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

2.74

goals/match

Bologna

0.95

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Napoli-4% unfavourable

Poisson

57%

Bookmaker

61%

Draw

Poisson

23%

Bookmaker

23%

Bologna+4% edge

Poisson

20%

Bookmaker

16%

Most probable scores

1–0

11.6%

1–1

11.0%

2–0

10.3%

2–1

9.8%

0–0

6.5%

0–1

6.2%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Napoli boasts a stronger attack and defense compared to a pressure-free Bologna sitting 9th, indicating a clear home advantage. The Poisson model gives Napoli a 57% win probability, slightly below bookmaker odds implying a 61% chance after margin removal, suggesting a modest market inefficiency. The most probable score of 1-0 aligns with a pragmatic home side controlling the match to secure crucial points.

I back Napoli to win @ 1.56. The home advantage and title race urgency favor a disciplined Napoli performance. Main risk: Bologna's defensive resilience leading to a draw. Stake: 3 units.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

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Home Win

@ 1.56

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