Serie A24 Apr, 20:45
Prediction Napoli — CremoneseFriday, 24 April 2026 at 20:45
Napoli
Home
3rd in table
4 — 0
✓ Won
Cremonese
Away
17th in table
Our Prediction
🏠
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.32
best odds
High
Comparative Statistics
3rd
Ranking
17th
1.5g/m
Avg attack
0.8g/m
1.0ag/m
Avg defence
1.4ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Napoli
71%
Draw
19%
Cremonese
10%
Over 2.5 goals
1.84
54% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.82
55% implied
∑Poisson Model
Napoli
1.95
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.61
goals/match
Cremonese
0.66
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Napoli
Poisson
68%
Bookmaker
71%
Draw
Poisson
20%
Bookmaker
19%
Cremonese
Poisson
12%
Bookmaker
10%
Most probable scores
1–0
14.3%
2–0
14.0%
1–1
9.5%
2–1
9.2%
3–0
9.1%
0–0
7.4%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Napoli’s strong position and offensive edge against a struggling Cremonese defense set the stage for a home win. The Poisson model’s 67.8% probability slightly outperforms bookmaker odds, indicating value in this bet. Napoli’s tactical control and ability to exploit defensive gaps justify backing their victory confidently.
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Match information
CompetitionSerie A
Date24 Apr, 20:45
Analysis published19 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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