Serie A18 Apr, 16:00
Prediction Napoli — LazioSaturday, 18 April 2026 at 16:00
Napoli
Home
VS
Pending
Lazio
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.99
best odds
Moderate
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Napoli
62%
Draw
25%
Lazio
13%
Over 2.5 goals
1.99
50% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.92
52% implied
∑Poisson Model
Napoli
1.90
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.70
goals/match
Lazio
0.80
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Napoli
Poisson
63%
Bookmaker
62%
Draw
Poisson
22%
Bookmaker
25%
Lazio
Poisson
15%
Bookmaker
13%
Most probable scores
1–0
12.8%
2–0
12.1%
1–1
10.2%
2–1
9.7%
3–0
7.7%
0–0
6.7%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts a slight edge for over 2.5 goals with 50.5% probability, reflecting Napoli's strong attack and Lazio's leaky defense. The odds are balanced, suggesting a moderate confidence bet.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionSerie A
Date18 Apr, 16:00
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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