Premier League18 Apr, 14:00
Prediction Newcastle United — BournemouthSaturday, 18 April 2026 at 14:00
Newcastle United
Home
5th in table
VS
Pending
Bournemouth
Away
9th in table
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.23
best odds
Very high
Comparative Statistics
LLWDW
Form (5)
WLLWD
5th
Ranking
9th
1.8g/m
Avg attack
1.5g/m
1.2ag/m
Avg defence
1.2ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Newcastle United
46%
Draw
26%
Bournemouth
29%
Over 2.5 goals
2.31
43% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.72
58% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +27.5%Newcastle United
2.42
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.77
goals/match
Bournemouth
1.35
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Newcastle United+15% edge
Poisson
61%
Bookmaker
46%
Draw-7% unfavourable
Poisson
19%
Bookmaker
26%
Bournemouth-9% unfavourable
Poisson
20%
Bookmaker
29%
Most probable scores
2–1
9.1%
1–1
7.5%
3–1
7.4%
2–0
6.7%
2–2
6.2%
1–0
5.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts a 72.3% chance of over 2.5 goals, much higher than the bookmakers' implied 44.8%, indicating strong value at 2.23 odds. Both teams' offensive stats support a high-scoring game.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionPremier League
Date18 Apr, 14:00
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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