Home/Predictions/Premier League/Newcastle United vs West Ham United

Premier League

17 May, 18:30

Prediction Newcastle United — West Ham UnitedSunday, 17 May 2026 at 18:30

Name: Home Win Prediction — Newcastle United vs West Ham United
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Newcastle United

Home

13th in table

Pending

West Ham United

Away

18th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.97

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

13th

Ranking

18th

1.4g/m

Avg attack

1.2g/m

1.4ag/m

Avg defence

1.7ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Newcastle United

49%

Draw

26%

West Ham United

26%

Over 2.5 goals

1.99

50% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.85

54% implied

∑Poisson Model

Newcastle United

2.03

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.26

goals/match

West Ham United

1.23

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Newcastle United+7% edge

Poisson

56%

Bookmaker

49%

Draw-5% unfavourable

Poisson

21%

Bookmaker

26%

West Ham United

Poisson

23%

Bookmaker

26%

Most probable scores

2–1

9.7%

1–1

9.6%

2–0

7.9%

1–0

7.8%

3–1

6.6%

2–2

6.0%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

The market fairly values Newcastle's win but underestimates their offensive capacity against West Ham's defensive struggles amid relegation pressure. Newcastle's balanced profile and West Ham's 1.7 goals conceded per match favor the home side. The Poisson model shows a 63.2% chance of over 2.5 goals, indicating an open game. I back Newcastle to win at 1.97 due to their stronger offense and stability, with a risk of West Ham tightening their defense. Stake: 3 units.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Home Win

@ 1.97

Bet on Betclic →

100€ for new members