Premier LeaguePrediction Nottingham Forest — Newcastle UnitedSunday, 10 May 2026 at 15:00
Nottingham Forest
Home
16th in table
1 — 1
✗ Lost
Newcastle United
Away
13th in table
Our Prediction
Nottingham Forest Win
match result
Odds
2.61
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.98
51% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.91
52% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +8.0%Nottingham Forest
1.67
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.97
goals/match
Newcastle United
1.30
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
11.1%
2–1
9.3%
1–0
8.6%
1–2
7.2%
2–0
7.2%
0–1
6.7%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Bookmakers undervalue Nottingham Forest’s edge driven by the relegation fight, contrasting with Newcastle’s relaxed approach. The Poisson model calculates a 46.3% chance of a Forest win versus 38.3% implied by odds, highlighting a market inefficiency. The verdict favors a Forest victory at 2.61, relying on the home side’s urgency and tactical intensity, with the main risk being Newcastle’s ability to control the game.
Match information
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