Premier LeaguePrediction Nottingham Forest — Newcastle UnitedSunday, 10 May 2026 at 13:00
Nottingham Forest
Home
16th in table
VS
Newcastle United
Away
13th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.61
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.00
50% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.89
53% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +8.0%Nottingham Forest
1.67
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.97
goals/match
Newcastle United
1.30
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
11.1%
2–1
9.3%
1–0
8.6%
1–2
7.2%
2–0
7.2%
0–1
6.7%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Bookmakers undervalue Nottingham Forest’s edge driven by the relegation fight, contrasting with Newcastle’s relaxed approach. The Poisson model calculates a 46.3% chance of a Forest win versus 38.3% implied by odds, highlighting a market inefficiency. The verdict favors a Forest victory at 2.61, relying on the home side’s urgency and tactical intensity, with the main risk being Newcastle’s ability to control the game.
Match information
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