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LaLiga

23 Apr, 21:30

Prediction Oviedo — VillarrealThursday, 23 April 2026 at 21:30

Name: Away Win Prediction — Oviedo vs Villarreal
Rating: 4
Author: Footexo

Oviedo

Home

20th in table

1 — 1

✗ Lost

Villarreal

Away

3rd in table

Our Prediction

✈️

Away Win

match result

Odds

1.86

best odds

High

Comparative Statistics

20th

Ranking

3rd

0.8g/m

Avg attack

1.8g/m

1.5ag/m

Avg defence

1.2ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Oviedo

27%

Draw

28%

Villarreal

46%

Over 2.5 goals

2.00

50% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.89

53% implied

∑Poisson Model

🎯 VALUE BET +9.4%

Oviedo

0.93

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

2.98

goals/match

Villarreal

2.05

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Oviedo-11% unfavourable

Poisson

16%

Bookmaker

27%

Draw-8% unfavourable

Poisson

20%

Bookmaker

28%

Villarreal+17% edge

Poisson

63%

Bookmaker

46%

Most probable scores

0–2

10.7%

0–1

10.4%

1–2

9.9%

1–1

9.7%

0–3

7.3%

1–3

6.8%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Villarreal’s superior attack and defense contrast sharply with Oviedo’s struggles, making an away win highly probable. The Poisson model shows a 63.2% chance of Villarreal winning, significantly higher than bookmakers’ 53.8%, indicating a profitable edge. I back Villarreal to win at 1.86, confident in their tactical superiority and motivation; risk lies in Villarreal underestimating Oviedo’s defensive resilience.

Other predictions for this match

⚽

Over 2.5 Goals

@ 1.94

High

✗

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Away Win

@ 1.86

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