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Ligue 1

3 May, 15:15

Prediction Paris FC — BrestSunday, 3 May 2026 at 15:15

Name: Home Win Prediction — Paris FC vs Brest
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Paris FC

Home

10th in table

Pending

Brest

Away

12th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

2.14

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

10th

Ranking

12th

1.3g/m

Avg attack

1.4g/m

1.5ag/m

Avg defence

1.6ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Paris FC

45%

Draw

28%

Brest

28%

Over 2.5 goals

2.00

50% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.85

54% implied

∑Poisson Model

Paris FC

1.74

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.09

goals/match

Brest

1.35

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Paris FC

Poisson

46%

Bookmaker

45%

Draw-5% unfavourable

Poisson

23%

Bookmaker

28%

Brest

Poisson

30%

Bookmaker

28%

Most probable scores

1–1

10.7%

2–1

9.3%

1–0

7.9%

1–2

7.2%

2–0

6.9%

2–2

6.3%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Paris FC shows a stronger offensive profile at home with higher expected goals (1.74) compared to Brest (1.35), giving them a tactical edge despite defensive vulnerabilities. The Poisson model assigns a 46.5% chance to Paris FC win, above the 44% implied by bookmakers, indicating value in backing the home side. I back Paris FC to win at 2.14, driven by offensive superiority and home advantage, with the main risk being a disciplined Brest defense. Stake: 3 units.

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Home Win

@ 2.14

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