Ligue 1Prediction Paris Saint Germain — BrestSunday, 10 May 2026 at 19:00
Paris Saint Germain
Home
1st in table
VS
Brest
Away
12th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.15
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.90
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.95
51% implied
∑Poisson Model
Paris Saint Germain
2.91
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.73
goals/match
Brest
0.82
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
2–0
10.1%
3–0
9.8%
2–1
8.3%
3–1
8.1%
4–0
7.2%
1–0
7.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The market rightly favors Paris Saint Germain due to their potent attack and Brest’s weak defense, but underestimates the likelihood of a clear PSG win. The Poisson model highlights a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals versus 52.6% implied, showing an undervaluation of PSG’s offensive dominance. I back PSG to win at 1.15, as the model predicts a comfortable victory; main risk is Brest’s potential defensive resilience limiting goals.
Match information
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