Serie APrediction Pisa — NapoliSunday, 17 May 2026 at 15:00
Pisa
Home
20th in table
VS
Napoli
Away
2nd in table
Our Prediction
Away Win
match result
Odds
1.42
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.83
55% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.01
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
Pisa
0.92
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.26
goals/match
Napoli
2.34
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
0–2
10.5%
1–2
9.7%
0–1
9.0%
1–1
8.3%
0–3
8.2%
1–3
7.5%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Napoli's need to avoid defeat to maintain top standings contrasts with Pisa's relegation battle and weak offense against a strong Napoli defense. The Poisson model gives Napoli a 68.9% win probability, slightly above bookmakers' 66%, indicating a mild market undervaluation. With an expected 2.34 goals from Napoli and a high probability for over 2.5 goals, the match should favor the visitors. I back Napoli to win at 1.42 due to clear quality gap and Pisa's pressure. Primary risk: Pisa’s defensive resilience. Stake: 4 units.
Match information
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