Serie APrediction Pisa — NapoliSunday, 17 May 2026 at 15:00
Pisa
Home
20th in table
0 — 3
✓ Won
Napoli
Away
2nd in table
Our Prediction
Napoli Win
match result
Odds
1.42
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.83
55% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.01
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
Pisa
0.92
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.26
goals/match
Napoli
2.34
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
0–2
10.5%
1–2
9.7%
0–1
9.0%
1–1
8.3%
0–3
8.2%
1–3
7.5%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Napoli's need to avoid defeat to maintain top standings contrasts with Pisa's relegation battle and weak offense against a strong Napoli defense. The Poisson model gives Napoli a 68.9% win probability, slightly above bookmakers' 66%, indicating a mild market undervaluation. With an expected 2.34 goals from Napoli and a high probability for over 2.5 goals, the match should favor the visitors. I back Napoli to win at 1.42 due to clear quality gap and Pisa's pressure. Primary risk: Pisa’s defensive resilience. Stake: 4 units.
Match information
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