LaLigaPrediction Rayo Vallecano — GironaMonday, 11 May 2026 at 19:00
Rayo Vallecano
Home
11th in table
VS
Girona
Away
16th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.42
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.03
49% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +8.0%Rayo Vallecano
1.50
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.47
goals/match
Girona
0.98
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
12.6%
1–1
12.3%
2–0
9.5%
2–1
9.2%
0–0
8.4%
0–1
8.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Bookmakers undervalue Rayo Vallecano’s win with odds at 2.42 while the model estimates a near 50% chance, reflecting a mismatch between perceived and actual strength. The Poisson model signals Rayo’s advantage with 49.3% probability versus 41.3% implied, highlighting their defensive solidity against a vulnerable Girona. The verdict favors a Rayo win at 2.42 for its tactical and statistical edge, with the main risk being Girona securing a draw.
Match information
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