LaLigaPrediction Rayo Vallecano — GironaMonday, 11 May 2026 at 21:00
Rayo Vallecano
Home
11th in table
1 — 1
✗ Lost
Girona
Away
16th in table
Our Prediction
Rayo Vallecano Win
match result
Odds
2.42
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.03
49% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +8.0%Rayo Vallecano
1.50
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.47
goals/match
Girona
0.98
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
12.6%
1–1
12.3%
2–0
9.5%
2–1
9.2%
0–0
8.4%
0–1
8.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Bookmakers undervalue Rayo Vallecano’s win with odds at 2.42 while the model estimates a near 50% chance, reflecting a mismatch between perceived and actual strength. The Poisson model signals Rayo’s advantage with 49.3% probability versus 41.3% implied, highlighting their defensive solidity against a vulnerable Girona. The verdict favors a Rayo win at 2.42 for its tactical and statistical edge, with the main risk being Girona securing a draw.
Match information
Share this prediction