BundesligaPrediction RB Leipzig — Union BerlinFriday, 24 April 2026 at 18:30
RB Leipzig
Home
3rd in table
VS
Union Berlin
Away
11th in table
Our Prediction
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.52
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.52
66% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.42
41% implied
∑Poisson Model
RB Leipzig
2.40
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.30
goals/match
Union Berlin
0.91
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
2–0
10.6%
2–1
9.6%
1–0
8.8%
3–0
8.4%
1–1
8.0%
3–1
7.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The Poisson model predicts 3.3 total goals, signaling an open game with Leipzig's attacking dominance and Union Berlin's occasional scoring. The 63.8% probability for over 2.5 goals exceeds the implied odds, indicating value. Leipzig's territorial control and Union's counterattacking threat justify this bet. I back over 2.5 goals at 1.52, expecting an entertaining, high-scoring match; risk is a tightly defensive Union Berlin. Stake: 3 units.
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