Ligue 117 Apr, 18:45
Prediction RC Lens — ToulouseFriday, 17 April 2026 at 18:45
RC Lens
Home
8th in table
3 — 2
✗ Lost
Toulouse
Away
10th in table
Our Prediction
✈️
Away Win
match result
Odds
5.67
best odds
Low
Comparative Statistics
WDWLW
Form (5)
WDWDL
8th
Ranking
10th
1.2g/m
Avg attack
1.3g/m
1.1ag/m
Avg defence
1.3ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
RC Lens
67%
Draw
20%
Toulouse
13%
Over 2.5 goals
2.06
49% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +23.3%RC Lens
1.16
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.51
goals/match
Toulouse
1.35
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
RC Lens-35% unfavourable
Poisson
32%
Bookmaker
67%
Draw+7% edge
Poisson
27%
Bookmaker
20%
Toulouse+28% edge
Poisson
41%
Bookmaker
13%
Most probable scores
1–1
12.7%
0–1
10.9%
1–0
9.4%
1–2
8.6%
0–0
8.1%
2–1
7.4%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Toulouse is favored by the Poisson model with a 41% win probability, despite bookmakers undervaluing this outcome. This represents a strong value bet opportunity with a high confidence level.
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Match information
CompetitionLigue 1
Date17 Apr, 18:45
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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