LaLiga22 Apr, 18:00
Prediction Real Sociedad — GetafeWednesday, 22 April 2026 at 18:00
Real Sociedad
Home
VS
Pending
Getafe
Away
Our Prediction
🔒
Under 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.96
best odds
Very high
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Real Sociedad
52%
Draw
30%
Getafe
18%
Over 2.5 goals
1.88
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.96
51% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +23.0%Real Sociedad
0.94
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
1.76
goals/match
Getafe
0.82
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Real Sociedad-15% unfavourable
Poisson
37%
Bookmaker
52%
Draw
Poisson
33%
Bookmaker
30%
Getafe+12% edge
Poisson
30%
Bookmaker
18%
Most probable scores
0–0
17.1%
1–0
16.1%
0–1
14.1%
1–1
13.3%
2–0
7.6%
2–1
6.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The match is expected to be low-scoring due to both teams' defensive solidity and recent form. The Poisson model indicates a 74% chance of under 2.5 goals, significantly higher than bookmakers' implied 51%, making Under 2.5 a strong value bet.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLaLiga
Date22 Apr, 18:00
Analysis published15 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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