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17 May, 19:00

Prediction Real Sociedad — ValenciaSunday, 17 May 2026 at 19:00

Name: Home Win Prediction — Real Sociedad vs Valencia
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Real Sociedad

Home

8th in table

Pending

Valencia

Away

12th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

2.04

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

8th

Ranking

12th

1.5g/m

Avg attack

1.1g/m

1.6ag/m

Avg defence

1.4ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Real Sociedad

48%

Draw

26%

Valencia

25%

Over 2.5 goals

1.89

53% implied

Under 2.5 goals

2.06

49% implied

∑Poisson Model

Real Sociedad

2.02

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.29

goals/match

Valencia

1.27

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Real Sociedad+7% edge

Poisson

55%

Bookmaker

48%

Draw-5% unfavourable

Poisson

21%

Bookmaker

26%

Valencia

Poisson

24%

Bookmaker

25%

Most probable scores

2–1

9.7%

1–1

9.6%

2–0

7.6%

1–0

7.5%

3–1

6.5%

2–2

6.1%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

The market slightly undervalues Real Sociedad's attacking edge against Valencia's leaky defense. The Poisson model signals a 63.7% chance of over 2.5 goals, higher than the market's 52.9%, reflecting an offensive-heavy game. I back Real Sociedad to win at 2.04 due to offensive strength and Valencia's defensive weakness; main risk is Valencia's defensive resilience.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

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Home Win

@ 2.04

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