Ligue 1Prediction Rennes — Paris FCSunday, 10 May 2026 at 21:00
Rennes
Home
5th in table
2 — 1
✓ Won
Paris FC
Away
11th in table
Our Prediction
Rennes Win
match result
Odds
1.48
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.01
50% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.83
55% implied
∑Poisson Model
Rennes
2.12
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.51
goals/match
Paris FC
1.39
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
2–1
9.3%
1–1
8.8%
2–0
6.7%
3–1
6.6%
2–2
6.5%
1–0
6.3%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Rennes' attacking firepower and European ambitions contrast sharply with Paris FC's mid-table complacency and defensive frailty. The Poisson model highlights a strong home win probability at 54%, slightly below bookmakers' odds but still the most reliable outcome. The decision to back Rennes at 1.48 is driven by their offensive edge and motivation, despite a risk of a resilient away side.
Match information
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