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Ligue 1

10 May, 19:00

Prediction Rennes — Paris FCSunday, 10 May 2026 at 19:00

Name: Home Win Prediction — Rennes vs Paris FC
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Rennes

Home

5th in table

Pending

Paris FC

Away

11th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.48

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

5th

Ranking

11th

1.8g/m

Avg attack

1.4g/m

1.4ag/m

Avg defence

1.5ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Rennes

65%

Draw

19%

Paris FC

15%

Over 2.5 goals

2.01

50% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.87

53% implied

∑Poisson Model

Rennes

2.12

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.51

goals/match

Paris FC

1.39

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Rennes-11% unfavourable

Poisson

54%

Bookmaker

65%

Draw

Poisson

21%

Bookmaker

19%

Paris FC+10% edge

Poisson

25%

Bookmaker

15%

Most probable scores

2–1

9.3%

1–1

8.8%

2–0

6.7%

3–1

6.6%

2–2

6.5%

1–0

6.3%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Rennes' attacking firepower and European ambitions contrast sharply with Paris FC's mid-table complacency and defensive frailty. The Poisson model highlights a strong home win probability at 54%, slightly below bookmakers' odds but still the most reliable outcome. The decision to back Rennes at 1.48 is driven by their offensive edge and motivation, despite a risk of a resilient away side.

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Home Win

@ 1.48

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